CSCEC(601668) 华泰证券·2025-04-18 10:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 9.02 [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 2,187.148 billion for 2024, a decrease of 3.46% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 462 billion, down 14.9% year-on-year. The decline in profit was primarily due to higher-than-expected impairment provisions for construction projects [1][4]. - Despite the profit decline, the company maintained a strong dividend capability, distributing RMB 11.2 billion in dividends for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio increasing by 3.47 percentage points to 24.29%, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.9% [1][4]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue from different segments in 2024 was as follows: construction revenue at RMB 1,321.8 billion (down 4.5%), infrastructure revenue at RMB 550.9 billion (down 1.0%), and surveying and design revenue at RMB 108 billion (down 0.8%). The overall gross margin for 2024 was 9.86%, slightly up by 0.02 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 2.11%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points year-on-year, with the fourth quarter showing a net profit margin of 1.16%, down 0.63 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is RMB 468 billion, RMB 473 billion, and RMB 478 billion respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of approximately 14% from previous estimates [4]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable revenue scale while focusing on high-quality operations, with a projected PE ratio of 4.87 for 2025 [4][6]. Market Position and Growth - The company has shown resilience in the real estate sector, with new land reserves of 8.82 million square meters, which is approximately 5.3 times the sales area for 2024 [2]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities for 2024 was RMB 15.8 billion, an increase of RMB 4.7 billion year-on-year, indicating improved cash management [3].