Chanhen(002895) 华鑫证券·2025-04-18 10:23Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Chuanheng Co., Ltd. (002895.SZ) for the first time [1][10]. Core Views - The significant increase in phosphoric acid production and sales has driven the company's high growth in performance, with a total revenue of 5.906 billion yuan in 2024, up 36.72% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 956 million yuan, up 24.80% year-on-year [1][2]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The company's revenue increased by 1.586 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to the production launch of the 200,000 tons/year semi-hydrated and dihydrate phosphoric acid and deep processing project by its subsidiary, Guangxi Pengyue. This new capacity significantly boosted product sales [2]. - Phosphoric acid production and sales grew by 96.57% and 107.89% year-on-year, contributing 1.872 billion yuan to revenue, a year-on-year increase of 120.63% [2]. - Feed-grade dicalcium phosphate production and sales increased by 23.11% and 15.81%, contributing 1.445 billion yuan to revenue, a year-on-year growth of 20.16% [2]. - Monoammonium phosphate production and sales rose by 23.57% and 15.68%, contributing 1.176 billion yuan to revenue, a year-on-year increase of 26.21% [2]. Cost and Cash Flow - The overall expense ratio decreased, with sales, management, and financial expense ratios down by 0.11%, 1.42%, and 1.36% respectively, while R&D expenses increased slightly [3]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for 2024 was 859 million yuan, an increase of 331 million yuan year-on-year, mainly due to increased sales profits and government subsidies [3]. Shareholder Returns and R&D Investment - The company maintained a stable dividend policy, distributing 12.00 yuan (including tax) per 10 shares, with a payout ratio of 67.58% and a dividend yield of 4.88% [4]. - R&D expenses increased by 37.37% year-on-year, focusing on projects such as the stability research of semi-hydrated phosphogypsum filling bodies and new crystallization processes [4]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to gradually expand its phosphate rock production capacity, with projected net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.217 billion yuan, 1.407 billion yuan, and 1.688 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 10.2, 8.8, and 7.3 times [10][12].