Acrel(300286) 华泰证券·2025-04-19 07:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 30.68 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the implementation of national virtual power plant policies, with its EMS 2.0 and 3.0 businesses anticipated to accelerate in 2025 [1][4]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.063 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 5.24%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 169.83 million RMB, down 15.68% year-on-year [7]. - The company has shown stable management of expenses, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios for 2024 at 13.84%, 6.04%, and 10.94% respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.063 billion RMB, a decrease of 5.24% year-on-year, and a net profit of 169.83 million RMB, down 15.68% year-on-year [7]. - The fourth quarter revenue was 248 million RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 0.32%, but net profit decreased by 58.70% year-on-year to 11.37 million RMB [1]. Business Segmentation - Domestic revenue for 2024 is expected to be 1.019 billion RMB, down 6.41% year-on-year, while overseas revenue is projected at 44 million RMB, up 33.22% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s product revenue in various segments showed declines, with power monitoring and substation monitoring systems down 12.12% and energy efficiency management products down 0.57% [2]. Cost Management and Profitability - The company maintained stable expense ratios, with a slight decrease in sales expenses and a minor increase in management expenses [3]. - The net profit margin, excluding other income and investment income, improved to approximately 18.74%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The national policy on virtual power plants aims for a regulation capacity of over 20 million kilowatts by 2027 and over 50 million kilowatts by 2030, which is expected to create significant growth opportunities for the company [4]. - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 295 million RMB, 384 million RMB, and 502 million RMB respectively, reflecting a recovery trajectory [5][7].