财信证券宏观策略周报（4.21-4.25）：市场将进入窄幅波动阶段，关注业绩高增方向-20250420

Market Overview - The market is expected to enter a phase of narrow fluctuations, with a focus on sectors showing high earnings growth [4][22] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.19% last week, closing at 3,276.73 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.54% [7][11] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 10,761.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.64% from the previous week [4][14] Earnings Reports and Economic Data - The upcoming period will see a concentrated disclosure of annual and quarterly reports from listed companies, which is crucial for market performance [4][22] - In Q1 2025, the GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with fixed asset investment increasing by 4.2% [16][19] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year in Q1, indicating a recovery in consumption [16][19] Sector Performance - The banking, real estate, and comprehensive sectors showed the highest gains last week, while the small and medium-sized indices experienced declines [7][15] - High-dividend sectors are gaining strength, with a focus on banks, coal, public utilities, and transportation [22][23] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with potential for high earnings growth, such as those related to "two new" policies, AI technology innovation, and utilities benefiting from falling coal prices [22][23] - The report suggests maintaining a cautious approach, controlling positions while waiting for market stabilization, and considering investments in high-dividend defensive sectors [22][23] Policy and Global Factors - The report highlights the importance of monitoring domestic policy developments and international tariff negotiations, particularly in light of the potential impact on market sentiment [4][20] - The independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is under scrutiny, with potential implications for global economic stability and inflation trends [21][22]