天山铝业（002532）：受益于全产业链优势，冶炼利润充分释放

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Outperform the Market" [4][33] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from its full industry chain advantages, with smelting profits being fully released. In 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102% [1][6] - The increase in profits is primarily due to rising aluminum prices and the complete self-sufficiency in alumina, with alumina sales gross profit reaching 2.12 billion yuan, an increase of 2 billion yuan year-on-year [1][6] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 1.85 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 41.4% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1][6] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 28.09 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.46 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 102% [1][3] - The operating cash flow reached 5.22 billion yuan, an increase of 33.3% [1][6] - The company’s main products saw significant production increases, with electrolytic aluminum production reaching 1.176 million tons, the highest level in recent years, and alumina production increasing to 2.28 million tons, up by 160,000 tons year-on-year [1][6] Product Margins - The selling price of self-produced aluminum ingots in 2024 was 17,493 yuan per ton, an increase of 948 yuan per ton year-on-year, while the cost was 13,582 yuan per ton, up by 474 yuan per ton, resulting in a gross margin of 3,912 yuan per ton, an increase of 474 yuan per ton [2][7] - The selling price of alumina was 3,505 yuan per ton, an increase of 992 yuan per ton year-on-year, with a cost of 2,488 yuan per ton, up by 48 yuan per ton, leading to a gross margin of 1,016 yuan per ton, an increase of 945 yuan per ton [2][7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 estimated at 4.81 billion yuan, 5.70 billion yuan, and 6.13 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.0%, 18.5%, and 7.5% [3][33] - The company is also set to enhance its resource security by starting the construction of 240,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity and has obtained mining rights for alumina resources in Guangxi [2][32]