宏观策略周报：市场将进入窄幅波动阶段，关注业绩高增方向

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.19% to close at 3,276.73 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.54% to 9,781.65 points during the week of April 14-18[7] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 10,761.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.64% from the previous week[7] - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate closed at 7.3039, with a decline of 0.28%[7] Economic Outlook - The market is expected to enter a narrow fluctuation phase, with a focus on high-growth performance areas as companies prepare to disclose their annual and quarterly reports[4] - The current price-to-book ratio of the Wind All A Index is 1.52 times, which is in the 13.45% historical percentile over the past decade, indicating strong long-term investment value[4] - The first quarter GDP growth was 5.4%, with fixed asset investment increasing by 4.2% year-on-year, while retail sales grew by 4.6%[16] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with potential high growth, high dividend yield defensive sectors, and consumer sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion[22] - Specific areas to watch include agriculture, home appliances, liquor, beauty care, and social services, especially in light of potential new policies from the upcoming Politburo meeting[23] - Gold prices are expected to remain supported due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global economic uncertainties[22] Risks - Key risks include macroeconomic downturns, volatility in overseas markets, and deteriorating Sino-US relations[46]