社会服务行业：周观点：中长线出行回暖，文旅消费链条或迎价值重估机会-20250420

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to be higher than that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [3][30]. Core Insights - The tourism market is showing significant recovery with three main trends: long-distance travel rebounding, cross-border travel heating up, and county-level markets gaining momentum. The proportion of cross-city accommodation orders has exceeded 80%, and inbound travel orders have increased by 173% year-on-year, reflecting a structural upgrade in consumption [2][6][15]. - The government's recent policies, including the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan," aim to boost consumption in sectors like culture and tourism, with measures such as a minimum 65% redemption rate for consumption vouchers and a 30% discount on tickets. These initiatives are expected to release regional and structural demand [2][18]. - The report highlights a shift in consumer preferences towards "deep experiences and increased freedom," with long-distance travel gaining popularity. The proportion of orders for stays of two days or more is expected to reach 20%, indicating a trend towards deeper travel experiences [20][21]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The social service sector index saw a weekly change of 0.14%, ranking 21 out of 31 in the Shenwan first-level industry performance. The hotel and catering sub-sector performed well with a 3.65% increase [5][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strong prelude to the May Day holiday, suggesting a revaluation of the tourism industry. The combination of policy incentives and consumption structure upgrades is expected to sustain the recovery in the cultural and tourism sector [6][15]. - The county-level market is experiencing notable growth, with tourism heat in lower-tier cities increasing by 25%, outpacing higher-tier cities by 11 percentage points. The consumption share of high-star hotels in county markets has surpassed that of high-tier cities for the first time [21] Industry News Dynamics - The report notes the increasing interest from older consumers in travel, with a significant rise in bookings from those aged 60 and above. This demographic is becoming a vital part of the tourism market, indicating a shift in consumer dynamics [22][23].