氧化铝周报：关注复产及新增进度，氧化铝反弹高度受限-20250421

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of alumina prices is limited, and there is a possibility of a subsequent decline under pressure due to the upcoming resumption of previously shut - down production capacity and the planned addition of 1.6 million tons of new alumina capacity at the end of April, which will put significant pressure on the supply side [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - From April 10 to April 18, 2025, the alumina futures (active) rose from 2790 yuan/ton to 2818 yuan/ton; the domestic alumina spot price dropped from 2911 yuan/ton to 2888 yuan/ton; the Australian alumina FOB increased from 330 dollars/ton to 347.5 dollars/ton; the import loss widened from 108.27 yuan/ton to 299.30 yuan/ton; the exchange warehouse inventory decreased by 9289 tons to 287681 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse inventory remained unchanged at 8100 tons. The prices of domestic bauxite in some regions changed, with the price in Shanxi (6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) dropping by 50 yuan/ton to 600 yuan/ton and in Guizhou (6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) dropping by 100 yuan/ton to 510 yuan/ton, while the prices in Henan and Guangxi remained stable [3] Market Review - The main alumina futures contract fell 1.26% last week, closing at 2818 yuan/ton. The national weighted - average spot price on Friday was 2888 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous Friday. Domestic bauxite supply and prices were relatively stable, but future prices may face downward pressure. The production and transportation in Guinea's GIC mining area were restricted, but the impact on import prices was not significant yet. On the supply side, the roasting furnace of an alumina plant in the southwest region completed maintenance, and the operating rate increased slightly. As of April 17, China's alumina production capacity was 107.4 million tons, the operating capacity was 82.7 million tons, and the operating rate was 77%. On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises had different production adjustment plans, and the theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased slightly by 0.5 million tons to 43.81 million tons. The alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 268 tons to 288,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory remained unchanged at 8100 tons [4] Market Outlook - The GIC mining area in Guinea was affected by government inspections, but it has not affected the import ore price for now. The supply - side production capacity has both increases and decreases, with the resumption of production in the southwest region and new maintenance plans in Shanxi. The demand for electrolytic aluminum remains rigid, but the spot trading has weakened as alumina prices stabilized and rebounded. Starting next week, the previously shut - down production capacity will gradually resume, which may put pressure on alumina prices. The planned addition of 1.6 million tons of new capacity at the end of April will also increase supply - side pressure [2][6] Industry News - Alumina futures prices rebounded slightly due to news from Guinea's GIC mining area, and the impact on ore supply remains to be seen. In March 2025, China imported 16.47 million tons of bauxite and concentrates, a 14% month - on - month increase and a 39.1% year - on - year increase; from January to March, the cumulative import was 47.07 million tons, a 29.9% year - on - year increase. A medium - sized alumina plant in Shanxi plans to overhaul a production line on April 19, affecting about 500,000 tons of production capacity for about 15 days [7] Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures prices, spot prices, spot premiums, inter - period spreads, domestic and imported bauxite prices, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, cost - profit, and exchange inventory [9][10][12]