ZHEJIANG DINGLI(603338) 招银国际·2025-04-21 05:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a HOLD rating for Zhejiang Dingli with a new target price of RMB44, down from RMB51, reflecting a 11.4% upside potential [1][3]. Core Insights - Zhejiang Dingli's net profit for 2024 is projected at RMB1.63 billion, representing a 13% year-over-year decline, which is significantly below expectations by 20% and 21% compared to the report's and Bloomberg's consensus [1]. - The disappointing earnings are attributed to advanced shipments to the US to avoid tariff hikes and the consolidation of higher costs from the acquisition of CMEC [1]. - The company has sufficient AWP inventory to cover US sales until September 2025, but the unpredictable US tariff policy poses a risk to demand and operational capacity [1][8]. - Earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 13% due to increased cost assumptions [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24 is expected to be RMB7.8 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 23.6% [2]. - Net profit for FY25 is estimated at RMB1.86 billion, showing a recovery with a 14.4% growth [2]. - The P/E ratio for FY24 is projected at 12.3x, while it is expected to decrease to 10.7x in FY25 [2][22]. Performance Metrics - In 4Q24, Dingli's gross profit fell by 28% to RMB515 million, with a gross margin contraction of 14.9 percentage points to 30.9% [1][9]. - The company’s administrative expenses increased significantly, contributing to a 71% year-over-year decline in net profit for 4Q24 [1][9]. - The current ratio is projected to improve from 2.3 in FY23 to 2.6 in FY25, indicating better liquidity [23]. Shareholding Structure - The largest shareholder, Xu Shugen, holds 45.5% of the company, followed by Deqing Zhongding Equity with 10.8% [4]. Market Performance - The stock has experienced a significant decline, with a 1-month drop of 32.9% and a 3-month decline of 42.6% [5].