摩根大通：半导体行业 - 第一季度预览 - 预计业绩符合预期，但关税及贸易相关动态将导致 2025 年第二季度和下半年业绩走弱，盈利预期下调周期开启；股票选择仍需谨慎。

Heading into 1Q earnings season, we believe the market continues to discount the anticipated/inevitable global demand slowdown driven by the U.S. tariffs/trade- related dynamics and remain selective on stocks (see our note we published last week on tariffs/trade here). We expect 1Q earnings season to kick off the negative earnings revision cycle with overall forward 12-month EPS estimates to be potentially cut by ~15-25% over the next two-three earning seasons, which we believe should help the semi stock bo ...