蛋白数据日报-20250421

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic soybean spot supply is tight, feed mills have low inventories, downstream transactions and pick - ups are improving. Under the tight spot situation, the short - term futures market is expected to fluctuate following the spot price trend [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - Base Price Data: On April 18th, the basis of the main soybean meal contract in Dalian was 723 with a change of 73; in Tianjin, no data was provided; in Rizhao, it was 493 with a change of 93. The spot basis of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 363 with a change of 13; in Dongguan, it was 263 with a change of - 7; in Zhanjiang, it was 303 with a change of - 7; in Fangcheng, it was 313 with a change of - 7. The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 137 with a change of - 11 [4]. - Spread Data: The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 660, and the spread of the main contract was 648 with a change of 8 [5]. - Inventory Data: The inventory of soybeans in China is increasing but currently at a low level; the soybean meal inventory has dropped significantly to a low level; the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [6]. - Opening and Pressing Data: No specific data values are summarized here, but there are data on the opening rate and soybean pressing volume of major domestic oil mills over time [5]. Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply Side: The spot supply is tight, and the customs clearance time in some areas has been extended to over 20 days. A large amount of Brazilian soybeans are expected to arrive in China in May and June. Under the trade war, the planting area of new - crop US soybeans is expected to be further reduced [6]. - Demand Side: From the perspective of inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before August; the inventory of meat - type poultry is expected to remain high in the first half of the year, and the inventory of egg - laying poultry is expected to remain high before April. As the spot price drops, the cost - effectiveness of soybean meal increases. In some areas, wheat is used to replace corn, reducing the demand for protein. The downstream transactions and pick - ups have improved [6].