日度策略参考-20250421

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: None - Bearish: Polycrystalline Silicon, Palm Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Short - Fiber, Styrene - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Gold, Silver, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate Lithium, Rebar, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Silicon Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Pulp, Logs, Ethylene Glycol, Urea, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic Soda - Special Recommendations: For some products, such as Nickel, specific trading strategies like counter - arbitrage in the far - month contracts are recommended; for some products like Stainless Steel, it is recommended to wait and see and consider building long positions at low prices; for some products like Tin, it is necessary to be vigilant against the impact of the resumption of low - grade tin mines on prices [1] 2. Core Views - Market Sentiment: Sino - US trade frictions may enter the negotiation stage, and market sentiment is expected to improve. However, tariff negotiations are ongoing, and macro risks are increasing [1] - Supply and Demand: Many industries are facing complex supply - demand situations. For example, in the industrial silicon industry, supply is strengthening while demand is weakening; in the polycrystalline silicon industry, the basic pattern is oversupply; in the carbonate lithium industry, the oversupply situation is narrowing, and downstream purchasing willingness has increased due to low prices [1] - Price Trends: Most product prices are in an oscillating state, and some products are expected to decline, such as palm oil and BR rubber. Some products are in a low - level range and are expected to rebound, such as silver [1] 3. Summaries by Product Categories Financial Products - Stock Index: After a rapid rebound for 3 - 4 trading days, the rebound strength may weaken under the condition that macro - negative factors have not subsided. The strategy is still to lay out at low prices [1] - Treasury Bond: The shortage of assets and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently reminded of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Silver: The resource tax policy in Indonesia has been implemented at the end of April, and the cost support is strong. The price has recovered from the bottom and is oscillating. Pay attention to the cost support of electrowinning silver and consider going long at low prices [1] - Stainless Steel: The futures are oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see and consider building long positions at low prices. The industrial side should pay attention to policy changes and steel mill production schedules [1] - Tin: Pay attention to the specific tariff situation of semiconductors in the future. The price is mainly affected by supply - side disturbances. Be vigilant against the impact of the resumption of low - grade tin mines on prices [1] Black Metals - Rebar and Iron Ore: Trade disputes intensify the pressure on the export chain. Rebar prices may decline at the opening, and iron ore is under short - term pressure due to its strong financial attributes [1] - Manganese Silicon and Silicon Ferrosilicon: Manganese silicon has high inventory but cost support; silicon ferrosilicon has loose costs, but production has been reduced in the production area, and social inventory is at a neutral level [1] Energy and Chemical Products - Palm Oil: International oil prices have fallen sharply, and the increase space of biodiesel is limited. With the increase in production in Malaysia and the increase in inventory in Indonesia, the price center is expected to move down [1] - PTA and Short - Fiber: Downstream factories have reduced production, which has hit demand. The cost side is also weakening, and the prices are expected to decline [1] - Benzene Ethylene: The price of pure benzene has weakened, and the impact of tariffs on the entity has begun to appear, and the actual impact on spot goods has arrived [1] Agricultural Products - Cotton: If crude oil continues to decline, cotton spinning demand may be weak, and the substitution between chemical fiber and cotton will also put pressure on cotton prices [1] - Sugar: Overseas production shortages have led to a strong rise in international sugar prices, but domestic production has increased year - on - year, and industrial inventory has reached a historical high, suppressing the upward space of domestic prices [1]