Milkground(600882) 平安证券·2025-04-21 23:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, with a current stock price of 27.47 yuan [1][3]. Core Views - The company focuses on cheese production, achieving a revenue of 12.33 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.26%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 0.82 billion yuan, up 114.88% year-on-year [3]. - The cheese segment generated 10.30 billion yuan in revenue for Q1 2025, accounting for 84.02% of total revenue, indicating a clear focus on optimizing its business structure [5]. - The company is enhancing its channel strategies, with distribution channels contributing 9.59 billion yuan (78.29% of revenue) and direct sales channels contributing 1.65 billion yuan (13.47%) in Q1 2025 [5]. - Financial forecasts have been adjusted, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 being 1.99 billion yuan, 3.09 billion yuan, and 4.19 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a strong recovery in operations [5]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.84 billion yuan, 5.30 billion yuan, 6.12 billion yuan, and 7.03 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.6%, 9.5%, 15.3%, and 15.0% [4][8]. - The net profit for the same years is projected to be 0.114 billion yuan, 0.199 billion yuan, 0.309 billion yuan, and 0.419 billion yuan, with significant growth rates of 79.1%, 75.0%, 55.5%, and 35.5% [4][8]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 28.3% in 2024 to 32.5% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to increase from 2.3% to 6.0% over the same period [8]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a P/E ratio forecast of 123.8 for 2024, decreasing to 33.6 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [4][8]. - The P/B ratio is expected to decline from 3.2 in 2024 to 2.6 in 2027, reflecting a more favorable valuation as the company matures [8].