中泰国际：对等关税的重视

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rebounded by 2.3% to 21,395 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index slightly declined by 0.3% to 4,887 points, indicating a noticeable capital flow back to traditional banks and state-owned enterprises [1] - The market turnover was approximately HKD 277.6 billion, with trading activity significantly decreasing compared to previous weeks due to the upcoming Easter holiday and a stagnant phase in the US-China tariff negotiations [1] - The net inflow from the Hong Kong Stock Connect was HKD 23.2 billion, providing strong support to the market [1] Economic and Policy Insights - The short-term outlook for the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index is challenged by geopolitical risks and earnings downgrades, but continuous southbound capital inflows and expectations for domestic demand policies, along with AI industry catalysts, are seen as stabilizing forces [2][3] - The Chinese GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, heavily reliant on policy-driven growth, with industrial production and high-end manufacturing benefiting from large-scale equipment renewal policies [5][6] - The government is expected to maintain a "risk prevention" policy stance, with limited incremental fiscal stimulus anticipated in the short term, focusing instead on implementing specific policies post the March "Two Sessions" [6] Sector Dynamics - The automotive sector showed stable performance as major companies like BYD and Geely launched new models, with BYD's new SUV starting at RMB 133,800 [4] - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index rose by 0.7%, with a focus on innovative drugs in oncology and cardiovascular fields, despite potential impacts from US investigations into drug imports [4] - The report highlights the importance of domestic demand and policy support for sectors such as infrastructure and technology, particularly in semiconductor and AI computing infrastructure [6][8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on defensive assets such as high-dividend state-owned enterprises in energy, utilities, and telecommunications, which provide downside protection due to low valuations and stable earnings [8] - It also recommends capitalizing on policy-driven opportunities in infrastructure and technology sectors, particularly in semiconductor equipment and AI computing [8] - Monthly stock picks include Alibaba-W, China Water Affairs, and Midea Group, among others, indicating a focus on companies with strong performance and growth potential [8]