3号指引修订后，城投票息确定性强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The revision of the No. 3 Guideline in 2025 has increased the requirements for urban investment companies, leading to a decline in the issuance and net financing of urban investment bonds in Q1 2025. The supply of urban investment bonds is expected to continue to shrink, increasing the scarcity of assets in the market and the difficulty of institutional investment [2][17]. - Amid the US "reciprocal tariff" policy, Chinese ministries and local governments are implementing measures to stabilize the foreign trade market and help enterprises find non - US export channels. The impact of tariffs on China's exports to the US may be short - term, and the impact is expected to gradually decrease in the long run [4][37]. - For urban investment bonds, different investment strategies can be adopted based on different regions and durations. For industrial bonds, it is recommended to wait for adjustment to achieve cost - effectiveness before allocation. For financial bonds, short - duration second - tier and perpetual bonds of national and joint - stock banks can be focused on [3][70][75]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 3 - Guideline Revision and Urban Investment Bonds - Guideline Revision: On March 28, 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the revised No. 3 Guideline, expanding the number of clauses from 56 to 66 and raising requirements for urban investment companies in transformation, bond issuance, and debt management [2][12]. - Market Situation: In Q1 2025, the issuance and net financing of urban investment bonds decreased significantly year - on - year. The issuance scale decreased by 14.14% and 14.71% compared with Q1 2023 and Q1 2024 respectively, and the net financing scale decreased by 36.92% and 83.75% respectively. The supply of urban investment bonds is expected to continue to shrink [2][17]. - Investment Suggestions: - By remaining maturity, 1 - year - or - less urban investment bonds have the largest scale, and 3 - 5 - year bonds have a convexity with an average valuation of 2.58%, suitable for earning coupon and riding returns. - By implied rating, AA(2) urban investment bonds have the largest scale, and AA - and below bonds have higher valuations. Institutions seeking higher returns by lowering credit quality can focus on bonds maturing within 2 years. - By region, short - term urban investment bonds in key provinces within 2 years can be focused on for coupon income, while 3 - 5 - year urban investment bonds issued by provincial and municipal platforms in non - key provinces can be considered for capital gains [3][23][28]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds - Foreign Trade Situation and Policies - US Tariff Policy: On April 2, 2025, US President Trump signed an executive order on "reciprocal tariffs", which took effect on April 5 and April 9 for different countries and regions. The US has been continuously adjusting tariff rates [32]. - Chinese Response: Chinese ministries and local governments are implementing measures to stabilize the foreign trade market, such as the "one - to - one" assistance for foreign trade enterprises, various exhibitions, and "export - to - domestic - sales" measures. It is expected that more "package incremental foreign trade policies" will be announced in the future [4][37]. - Expected Impact: The US tariff policy may have a short - term negative impact on China's exports to the US in Q2, but in the long run, the impact may gradually decrease with the implementation of domestic "hedging" policies and the diversification of foreign trade channels [54]. 3.3 Urban Investment Bonds - Investment Suggestions - Focus on "Economic Powerhouses": Provinces such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Anhui, Shanghai, and Beijing have relatively good development momentum and debt management. Their provincial, municipal, and district - level platforms are relatively stable, and the duration can be appropriately extended to 5 years [54]. - Regions with Debt Resolution Policies: Regions such as Chongqing, Tianjin, Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Gansu, Guizhou, and Yunnan, where significant debt - resolution policies or substantial funds have been implemented, can be considered with a duration of 3 - 5 years [55]. - Cities with Strong Industrial Bases: Prefecture - level cities with strong industrial bases and financial support, such as those in Guangxi, Hubei, Shanxi, Hunan, Henan, Sichuan, Chongqing, Shaanxi, and Jiangxi, can be focused on with a duration of 2 - 3 years [58][59]. 3.4 Industrial Bonds and Financial Bonds - Weekly Views - Industrial Bonds: Last week, most industrial bond yields adjusted. The market may be pre - trading tariff easing. It is recommended to wait for adjustment to achieve cost - effectiveness before allocation. Institutions with stable liability ends can focus on long - term bonds of central or provincial state - owned enterprises in public utilities, transportation, etc., and can appropriately lower the credit quality for bonds within 3 years. Institutions with less stable liability ends can focus on 2 - 3 - year industrial bonds with good liquidity [70]. - Financial Bonds: The market is affected by the repeated tariff policy and is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The yield trends of financial bond varieties have diverged, and most yields have declined compared with last week. It is not recommended to chase the rise of second - tier and perpetual bonds currently. Institutions with trading needs can focus on short - duration second - tier and perpetual bonds of national and joint - stock banks. For allocation, individual bonds of weak - quality joint - stock banks with high valuations can be considered [75]. 3.5 Primary Market Tracking - Credit Bond Issuance: Relevant charts show the historical issuance and net financing of credit bonds, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [83][84]. - Financial Bond Issuance: Relevant charts show the historical issuance and net financing of financial bonds, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [87][88]. - Subscription and Cost: Charts show the subscription and issuance costs of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [91][92].