Shandong Xiantan (002746) 华泰证券·2025-04-22 05:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 7.00 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at 5.291 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 8.49%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 206 million RMB, down 8.75% year-on-year. However, Q4 2024 showed a revenue increase of 2.57% year-on-year and a significant net profit increase of 330.25% year-on-year [1][2]. - The decline in chicken prices has negatively impacted the company's performance, but it maintains a complete cost advantage, with the total cost per ton of chicken products decreasing by nearly 1,000 RMB, or about 10% [2][3]. - The company is gradually releasing production capacity from its new projects, which will increase its slaughter capacity to 250-270 million chickens and processing capacity to 700,000 tons [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.291 billion RMB, a decrease of 8.49% year-on-year, and a net profit of 206 million RMB, down 8.75% year-on-year. The Q4 2024 revenue was 1.483 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.57% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.40% [1][2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.111 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 25%. The net profit was 48 million RMB, up 584% year-on-year but down 49% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. Production Capacity and Market Outlook - The company is in the process of completing its new production projects, which will significantly enhance its production capacity. The total slaughter capacity is expected to reach 250-270 million chickens, with a processing capacity of 700,000 tons [3][4]. - The white feather chicken industry has faced losses for over two years, and the potential for a recovery in chicken prices is being monitored, especially if domestic consumption continues to improve in 2025 [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted downwards due to the oversupply in the white feather chicken industry. The estimated net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 302 million RMB, 338 million RMB, and 325 million RMB, respectively [4][6]. - The target price is set at 7.00 RMB based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's gradual capacity release and cost advantages [4][7].