索辰科技（688507）：并购加速或带动公司份额提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 379 million RMB in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 18.24%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 41.45 million RMB, down 27.89% year-over-year. The lower-than-expected performance is attributed to delayed order confirmations from downstream customers. However, with an accelerated pace of mergers and acquisitions, revenue growth is expected to accelerate in 2025 [1][5] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 39 million RMB, up 21.73% year-over-year, indicating a further increase in revenue growth compared to Q4 2024. This is attributed to an expanding customer base and the confirmation of some projects that were delayed from 2024 [2] - The company's product matrix is continuously expanding, with the engineering simulation software business expected to generate 228 million RMB in revenue in 2024, a year-over-year increase of 21.72%. New product launches are anticipated to drive rapid growth in simulation product development revenue in 2025 [3] - The company is accelerating its mergers and acquisitions, including a strategic investment of 88 million RMB to acquire a 55% stake in a company to enhance its capabilities in atmospheric waveguide prediction and assessment. This is expected to strengthen its market position in the domestic CAE market, which is currently dominated by foreign companies [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 320.38 million RMB in 2023, with a growth rate of 19.52%. The revenue is projected to reach 556.40 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 46.88% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover to 101.83 million RMB in 2025, after a decline in 2024 [7] Profitability and Valuation - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2025 and 2026, lowering the net profit estimates to 102 million RMB and 131 million RMB, respectively, due to the delayed confirmation of projects [5][18] - The target price for the company is set at 93.66 RMB, based on a price-to-sales ratio of 15x for 2025 [5][9]