NHWA(002262) 高盛·2025-04-22 05:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical Co. is Neutral, with a 12-month price target of Rmb28, indicating an upside potential of 25.2% from the current price of Rmb22.37 [6][2]. Core Insights - Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical Co. is a leading manufacturer of psychiatric drugs and anesthetics in China, with growth drivers including the ramp-up of its licensed-in asset TRV-130 and newly approved generic drugs [2]. - The company's 1Q25 results showed revenue of Rmb1,511 million, representing an 11% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of Rmb301 million, up 13% year-over-year, which were in line with expectations [1]. - The report indicates that only 0.4% of the company's total revenue in 2024 was from overseas markets, with minimal exposure to the US market, suggesting limited tariff impact [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical Co. are as follows: Rmb5,697.6 million for 2024, Rmb6,531.9 million for 2025, Rmb7,513.2 million for 2026, and Rmb8,698.0 million for 2027 [6]. - EBITDA estimates are projected to be Rmb1,376.4 million for 2024, Rmb1,583.4 million for 2025, Rmb1,862.9 million for 2026, and Rmb2,206.4 million for 2027 [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are Rmb1.13 for 2024, Rmb1.29 for 2025, Rmb1.50 for 2026, and Rmb1.77 for 2027 [6]. Key Catalysts - Important events to monitor include the ramp-up pace of TRV-130 and the potential for volume-based procurement (VBP) in anesthetics, which could impact the company's growth trajectory [2].