天山铝业（002532）：成长兼具红利，投资价值凸显

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 28.089 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.06%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.455 billion yuan, a significant increase of 102.03%. The non-recurring profit was approximately 178 million yuan, leading to a non-recurring net profit of 4.309 billion yuan, up 128.80% year-on-year. The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 has been raised, with expected figures of 4.685 billion, 5.515 billion, and 6.163 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of +5.2%, +17.7%, and +11.8% [4][5] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - The total market capitalization of Tianshan Aluminum is 35.261 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 31.305 billion yuan. The current stock price is 7.58 yuan, with a 52-week high of 9.88 yuan and a low of 6.08 yuan. The company has a total share capital of 4.652 billion shares, with a circulating share capital of 4.130 billion shares. The turnover rate over the past three months is 72.45% [1][8] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.01, 1.19, and 1.32 yuan respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 7.3, 6.2, and 5.5 times [4][8] Growth and Dividend Strategy - Tianshan Aluminum is enhancing its industrial chain by establishing a self-sufficient supply of bauxite and expanding its production capacity in alumina and electrolytic aluminum. The company has obtained mining rights for local bauxite in Guangxi and is progressing with a 1 million-ton alumina project in Indonesia. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to increase significantly [5][6] - In 2024, the company distributed cash dividends totaling 1.845 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 41.42%. The company has committed to a shareholder return plan, ensuring a cash dividend ratio of no less than 30% of the annual net profit for the next three years [6]