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上周行业大幅跑输基准,产业链核心价格普遍回落
湘财证券·2025-04-22 06:22

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][44] Core Viewpoints - The rare earth magnetic materials industry experienced a significant decline of 5.01% last week, underperforming the benchmark by 5.6 percentage points [5][11] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) decreased by 3.73x to 69.23x, currently at 85.9% of its historical percentile [5][11] - Demand remains weak, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium continuing to decline [6][17] - The overall market sentiment is weak, influenced by policy impacts and limited downstream orders [21][38] - Despite high growth in the new energy vehicle sector, the industry faces challenges from U.S. tariff policies affecting export demand [8][43] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The rare earth magnetic materials industry fell by 5.01% last week, underperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 5.6 percentage points [5][11] - Over the past 12 months, the industry has shown a relative return of 12% [4] Price Trends - Core prices across the rare earth supply chain have generally declined, with significant drops in light rare earth prices [6][11] - Domestic mixed rare earth carbonate and imported monazite prices fell by 8% and 2.66% respectively [6][11] - The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide decreased by 2.69% to 416,500 CNY/ton [17] Demand and Supply Dynamics - New energy vehicle production and sales in March 2025 saw year-on-year increases of 43%, 38%, and 35.5% for production, retail, and wholesale respectively [7][42] - The demand for air conditioning and industrial sectors remains stable, but export demand is expected to decline due to U.S. tariffs [8][43] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating due to the anticipated stable growth in demand despite current challenges [8][44] - The industry is still in a recovery phase, with absolute and relative historical valuation levels remaining high, indicating potential overvaluation risks [8][44]