燕京啤酒（000729）：业绩符合快报，U8势能充足

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Yanjing Beer (000729.SZ) [10][15] Core Views - Yanjing Beer achieved a revenue of 14.7 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, and a net profit of 1.06 billion yuan, up 63.7% year-on-year, aligning with preliminary reports [5][10] - The company anticipates a net profit of 160 to 172 million yuan for Q1 2025, representing a growth of 56.0% to 67.7% year-on-year [5] - The U8 product line continues to show strong sales momentum, with a volume increase of 31.4% year-on-year, contributing to 17.4% of total sales [9][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Yanjing Beer reported a revenue of 14.67 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.06 billion yuan, reflecting significant growth compared to the previous year [5][10] - The company’s gross margin improved to 40.7%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by cost optimization [9][10] - The forecast for 2025 and 2026 indicates continued growth in net profit, with estimates of 1.46 billion yuan and 1.77 billion yuan respectively [10][12] Sales and Market Position - Yanjing Beer’s beer sales reached 4 million kiloliters in 2024, surpassing the industry average, which saw a slight decline of 0.6% [9] - The average selling price of beer remained stable at 3,304 yuan per kiloliter, with a slight decrease of 0.6% year-on-year [9] - The company’s product structure is improving, with mid-to-high-end products generating significant revenue [9] Regional Performance - Revenue growth varied by region, with North China showing a robust increase of 5.4%, while South China remained stable with a 0.3% increase [9] - Traditional sales channels generated 139.3 million yuan, reflecting a 3% increase, while e-commerce channels also saw growth [9] Future Outlook - The company plans to increase dividends to 540 million yuan, representing 51% of the net profit, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [10] - The report anticipates continued growth in the U8 product line and improved profitability through cost control and efficiency enhancements [10]