TIANSHAN ALUMINUM(002532) 开源证券·2025-04-22 12:33Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 28.09 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.06%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.455 billion yuan, a significant increase of 102.03%. The non-recurring profit was approximately 1.78 billion yuan, leading to a non-recurring net profit of 4.309 billion yuan, up 128.80% year-on-year. The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 has been raised, with expected figures of 4.685 billion, 5.515 billion, and 6.163 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.2%, 17.7%, and 11.8% [4][5][6]. Financial Summary - The total market capitalization of Tianshan Aluminum is 35.261 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 31.305 billion yuan. The current stock price is 7.58 yuan, with a 52-week high of 9.88 yuan and a low of 6.08 yuan. The total share capital is 4.652 billion shares, with 4.130 billion shares in circulation. The turnover rate over the past three months is 72.45% [1][4]. Performance Metrics - The company’s revenue is projected to increase from 28.089 billion yuan in 2024 to 29.538 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.2%. The gross profit margin is expected to be 22.6% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 15.9% [8][10][12]. Growth Drivers - Tianshan Aluminum is enhancing its industrial chain by establishing a self-sufficient supply of bauxite and expanding its production capacity in alumina and electrolytic aluminum. The company has obtained mining rights for local bauxite in Guangxi and is progressing with a 1 million-ton alumina project in Indonesia. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to increase significantly, contributing to the company's growth potential [5][6]. Shareholder Returns - In 2024, the company distributed cash dividends totaling 1.845 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 41.42%. The company has committed to a shareholder return plan, ensuring a cash dividend of no less than 30% of the annual net profit for the next three years. Additionally, a share buyback plan is in place, with an estimated repurchase of approximately 20 million shares, accounting for 0.43% of the total share capital [6][8].