Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [2][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.56 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 13.4%, with a net profit of 161 million yuan, up 14.1% year-over-year [4]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant revenue increase of 39% year-over-year, reaching 507 million yuan, with a net profit of 43 million yuan, up 28.6% year-over-year [4]. - The first quarter of 2025 continued this trend with a revenue of 430 million yuan, a 19.4% increase year-over-year, and a net profit of 43 million yuan, up 15.6% year-over-year [4]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company's revenue from different channels was as follows: distribution model 1.03 billion yuan (+3.7% YoY), direct supply model 40 million yuan (-24.0% YoY), and e-commerce model 480 million yuan (+52.0% YoY) [5]. - The revenue from various product categories in 2024 included: adult toothpaste 1.25 billion yuan (+16.1% YoY), adult toothbrush 160 million yuan (+3.3% YoY), children's toothpaste 70 million yuan (-0.5% YoY), children's toothbrush 30 million yuan (-5.1% YoY), electric toothbrush 10 million yuan (-14.3% YoY), and oral medical and beauty care products 40 million yuan (+35.5% YoY) [5]. Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 49.4%, an increase of 5.3 percentage points year-over-year, while the net profit margin was 10.3%, showing a slight improvement [6]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the gross margin rose to 55.5%, a year-over-year increase of 7.1 percentage points, while the net profit margin slightly decreased to 10.0% due to fluctuations in fair value changes [6]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see steady growth in its core oral care market, with projected net profits of 200 million yuan, 250 million yuan, and 320 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 39x, 31x, and 24x [7]. - The report highlights the company's strong cash flow and high dividend payout ratio, which are expected to enhance its valuation premium [7]. Financial Metrics - The projected revenue for the company is expected to grow from 1.56 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.78 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 20.87% [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.94 yuan in 2024 to 1.84 yuan in 2027 [10].
登康口腔（001328）：大单品带动线上放量，毛销差优化