房地产行业报告（2025.4.14-2025.4.20）：短期政策预期较强，稳地产仍是重点

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The real estate sector has shown significant excess returns compared to the CSI 300 index, driven by increased policy expectations aimed at boosting domestic demand amid external environmental changes. Although new home transaction volumes have slightly declined in recent weeks and second-hand home listing prices continue to fall, historical trends suggest that the real estate sector typically rebounds before the fundamentals stabilize. With strong expectations for new policies by the end of April, the sector is likely to continue achieving excess returns [4] Industry Fundamentals Tracking New Home Transactions and Inventory - Last week, the new home transaction area in 30 major cities was 149.44 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date transaction area of 2,966.57 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 209.67 million square meters, down 4.7% year-on-year and down 10.4% month-on-month. In first-tier cities, the average transaction area was 68.64 million square meters, down 8.9% year-on-year and down 11.1% month-on-month. In second-tier cities, the average was 92.78 million square meters, down 10.6% year-on-year and down 9.7% month-on-month. In third-tier cities, the average was 48.25 million square meters, up 18.2% year-on-year and down 10.7% month-on-month [5][13] Second-Hand Home Transactions and Listings - Last week, the transaction area of second-hand homes in 12 key cities was 201.6 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date transaction area of 2,964.5 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.6%. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 203.45 million square meters, up 15.9% year-on-year and down 7.3% month-on-month. As of April 13, 2025, the national second-hand home listing index was 19.12, down 8.3% month-on-month, and the listing price index was 155.64, down 0.12% month-on-month [6][19][21] Land Market Transactions - Last week, 100 major cities saw 42 new residential land supplies and 30 land transactions. The average transaction volume to supply ratio for residential land over the past four weeks was 0.77, while for commercial land it was 0.78. The average floor price for residential land was 6,127.25 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 13.76%, down 2.47 percentage points month-on-month. The average floor price for commercial land was 1,747.75 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 1.26%, up 0.3 percentage points month-on-month [22] Market Review - Last week, the A-share real estate index rose by 3.4%, while the CSI 300 index increased by 0.59%, resulting in a 2.81 percentage point outperformance of the real estate index over the CSI 300 index. In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Property Services and Management Index rose by 0.36%, while the Hang Seng Composite Index increased by 2.21%, indicating that the property services and management index underperformed the composite index by 1.85 percentage points [25][27]