房地产行业报告：短期政策预期较强 稳地产仍是重点

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector has shown significant excess returns compared to the CSI 300 index, driven by increased policy expectations aimed at expanding domestic demand in response to external environmental changes. Although new home transaction volumes have slightly declined in recent weeks and second-hand home listing prices continue to fall, historical trends suggest that the real estate sector typically rebounds before the fundamentals stabilize. With strong expectations for new policies before the end of April, the real estate sector is likely to continue achieving excess returns [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Industry Fundamentals Tracking - New Home Transactions and Inventory: Last week, the new home transaction area in 30 major cities was 149.44 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date transaction area of 2,966.57 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 209.67 million square meters, down 4.7% year-on-year and down 10.4% month-on-month. In first-tier cities, the average transaction area was 68.64 million square meters, down 8.9% year-on-year and down 11.1% month-on-month [5][13]. - Second-Hand Home Transactions and Listings: Last week, the transaction area of second-hand homes in 12 key cities was 201.6 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date transaction area of 2,964.5 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.6%. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 203.45 million square meters, up 15.9% year-on-year but down 7.3% month-on-month [6][19]. - Land Market Transactions: Last week, 100 major cities saw 42 new residential land supplies and 30 transactions. The average floor price for residential land was 6,127.25 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 13.76%, down 2.47 percentage points month-on-month [22]. 2. Market Review - Last week, the A-share real estate index rose by 3.4%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.59%, by 2.81 percentage points. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Property Services and Management Index rose by 0.36%, while the Hang Seng Composite Index rose by 2.21%, indicating that the property services and management index underperformed the composite index by 1.85 percentage points [25][27].