TIANSHAN ALUMINUM(002532) 天风证券·2025-04-22 15:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in net profit, with a year-on-year growth of 102% in 2024, reaching a net profit of 4.455 billion yuan [1][4]. - The integrated business model has strengthened, with the company entering production in Guinea and securing mining rights for its own bauxite mines in Guangxi [3][4]. - The company has committed to a cash dividend of 1.85 billion yuan for 2024, representing a payout ratio of 41.4%, and plans to maintain a minimum dividend payout ratio of 30% over the next three years [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 28.089 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, while the net profit reached 4.455 billion yuan, reflecting a 102% increase [1][5]. - The average aluminum price in 2024 was 20,000 yuan per ton, up 8.2% year-on-year, contributing to improved profitability despite rising production costs [2][5]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 was 7.367 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 7.925 billion yuan in 2025 [5][12]. Production and Cost Analysis - The company produced 1.1759 million tons of aluminum in 2024, a slight increase of 1% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 4.195 billion yuan from the electrolytic aluminum segment [2][3]. - The alumina production reached 2.2789 million tons, with a significant increase in average selling price by 40% year-on-year, leading to a net profit of 1.78 billion yuan from the alumina segment [2][3]. - The production cost of alumina increased by only 2%, while the average selling price rose significantly, indicating strong pricing power [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company expects a favorable supply-demand balance for electrolytic aluminum in 2025, driven by new domestic policies and supply constraints [4]. - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.686 billion yuan, 5.594 billion yuan, and 6.019 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.4, 6.2, and 5.8 [4][5].