SRBC(600039) 华泰证券·2025-04-23 02:17Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 11.03 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 was 107.2 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 6.78%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.21 billion RMB, down 19.9% [1]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 35.4 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.7%, and a net profit of 2.44 billion RMB, up 95.0% [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the strategic development of Sichuan Province, which supports the implementation of the Western Development and Yangtze River Economic Belt strategies, leading to stable investment intensity [1]. - The company has a strong ability to maintain profit scale stability, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 60%, resulting in estimated dividend yields of 6.49% and 6.80% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [1]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company's revenue from various segments in Q1 2025 showed a mixed performance, with engineering construction down 10.5% year-on-year, while mining and new materials saw an increase of 98.1% [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 decreased by 2.47 percentage points to 15.7% due to various operational disruptions [2]. Financial Metrics - The company reported a net operating cash flow of 3.4 billion RMB in 2024, an increase of 5.5 billion RMB year-on-year, with a cash collection/payment ratio of 90.1%/89.1% [3]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 8.0 billion, 8.4 billion, and 8.7 billion RMB, respectively [4]. - The company is expected to maintain a PE ratio of 12x for 2025, with a target price of 11.03 RMB based on a dividend yield higher than the comparable average [4]. Key Financial Data - The projected revenue for 2025 is 114.46 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 6.74% from 2024 [6]. - The expected EPS for 2025 is 0.92 RMB, with a ROE of 15.12% [6].