Mtalco(601677) 华泰证券·2025-04-23 02:17Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 13.71 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 32.32 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 22.23%, and a net profit of 1.75 billion RMB, up 29.76% year-over-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 8.12 billion RMB, a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 6.25% but a year-over-year increase of 13.07%, with a net profit of 440 million RMB, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter increase of 30.38% and a year-over-year increase of 21.46% [1]. - The company’s sales volume for aluminum plates and strips reached 1.23 million tons in 2024, up 22.06% year-over-year, while aluminum foil sales were 239,900 tons, up 4.59% year-over-year [2]. - The comprehensive sales gross margin for 2024 was 6.95%, down 2.51 percentage points year-over-year, but showed a recovery in Q1 2025 with a gross margin of 6.64%, up 11.69 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue for 2024 was 32.32 billion RMB, with a net profit of 1.75 billion RMB, slightly below the previous forecast of 1.83 billion RMB [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 8.12 billion RMB and a net profit of 440 million RMB, indicating a recovery in profitability [1]. Market Conditions - The negative impact of the domestic cancellation of export tax rebates is gradually diminishing, with Q1 2025 showing a sales volume of 378,500 tons of aluminum materials, a 1.8% increase quarter-over-quarter [3]. - The company’s exposure to U.S. tariffs is limited due to a small proportion of direct exports to the U.S. and the exclusion of aluminum products from the current tariff list [3]. Production Outlook - The company is expected to maintain stable growth in production and sales in 2025, supported by the commissioning of new projects and an increase in the proportion of recycled aluminum [4]. - The "70,000 tons of green new aluminum alloy materials project" is expected to enhance production capacity and cost advantages [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 1.53 RMB, down from a previous estimate of 1.77 RMB, reflecting a decrease of 13.56% [5]. - The target price is set at 13.71 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 8.96 times for 2025 [5].