投资策略报告：察势者明，趋势者智-20250423

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of new domestic momentum and effective demand release, focusing on stable growth in employment, real estate, and infrastructure, alongside high-quality development through expanding domestic demand and technology [3][5][12] - The report highlights a more proactive fiscal policy with significant increases in special government bonds and fiscal spending, amounting to an additional 2.9 trillion yuan in fiscal expenditure [12][18] - The economic outlook for Q1 2025 shows a GDP growth rate of 5.4%, with consumer spending and industrial production showing positive trends, although real estate investment remains a concern [18][19][39] Group 2 - The report discusses the impact of Trump's policies, particularly tariffs, on capital flows and market stability, indicating that without substantial progress on tariffs, capital may continue to flow out of U.S. assets [45][57] - It notes that the uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policies has led to increased volatility in U.S. financial markets, with significant implications for both equity and bond markets [58][61] - The report suggests that the ongoing struggle between Trump and Powell could lead to negative consequences for the U.S. dollar system, with potential increases in term premiums affecting long-term interest rates [75][76] Group 3 - The report identifies key sectors for investment, highlighting that consumer staples, transportation equipment manufacturing, and utilities are showing strong performance, while sectors like media and power equipment are experiencing reductions in investment [83][85] - It points out that the PEG ratio indicates high investment value in sectors such as electric equipment, chemicals, and automobiles, while the PB-ROE perspective shows minimal growth premiums in banking and coal sectors, suggesting a favorable risk-return profile [83][84] - The report also notes that southbound capital has significantly flowed into the Hong Kong stock market, enhancing the pricing power of domestic investors in various sectors including banking, pharmaceuticals, and retail [87]