Sanquan Food (002216) 国信证券·2025-04-23 05:36Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral [5][3][18] Core Views - The company is expected to see a 6% year-on-year decrease in revenue for 2024, with total revenue projected at 6.632 billion yuan and a net profit of 542 million yuan, reflecting a 27.64% decline [1][7] - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to the performance of dumplings and hot pot ingredients, while the e-commerce channel continues to show high growth [1][11] - The company is actively observing changes in downstream channels and adapting its operational strategies accordingly, including partnerships with discount snack stores and enhancing e-commerce operations [2][16] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly adjusted downwards to 6.825 billion yuan and 7.255 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 7.591 billion yuan [3][17] - The expected year-on-year growth rates for revenue from 2025 to 2027 are 2.9%, 6.3%, and 4.6% [3][17] - The projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 564 million yuan and 602 million yuan, respectively, with a forecast for 2027 at 620 million yuan [3][17] Financial Metrics - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 24.2%, down 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross profit margin for Q1 2025 is projected at 25.3% [2][11] - The company’s net profit margin is forecasted to decline to 6.3% in 2024, with a recovery to 7.4% in Q1 2025 [2][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.64 yuan, 0.68 yuan, and 0.70 yuan, respectively [3][17]