TINCI(002709) 华泰证券·2025-04-23 06:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][5] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 revenue reached 3.489 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 41.64% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.56%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 150 million RMB, up 30.80% year-on-year and 2.74% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the previous expectation of 130 million RMB due to stronger-than-expected demand in the lithium battery downstream market [1][2] - The report anticipates that the company's profitability will improve quarter by quarter in 2025, driven by a stable growth in electrolyte demand following the lithium battery demand and potential price increases as supply and demand tighten [1][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve a Q1 2025 electrolyte shipment volume of 140,000 to 150,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of over 60% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of less than 8%. The estimated profit per ton is over 800 RMB, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company's Q1 2025 profit from daily chemicals is projected to be between 50 to 60 million RMB, while the cathode materials segment is expected to incur a loss of 50 to 70 million RMB, which may gradually decrease with the release of new production capacity [2] Global Expansion - The company is deepening its global industrial layout, having signed a processing agreement with Duksan Electera in January 2025 for a total processing volume of no less than 10,000 tons from 2025 to 2027, facilitating local supply of electrolyte products to key customers in the U.S. [3] - The transfer of 49% equity in Texas Tianqi to Honeywell is expected to enhance local supply capabilities for liquid 6F raw materials and improve the recycling of by-products [3] Business Development - The company is advancing its cathode materials business, with a current production capacity of 330,000 tons for iron phosphate. As the second phase of the Yichang project stabilizes, cost advantages are expected to improve, potentially turning the cathode business profitable [4] - The report maintains profit assumptions, projecting net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 to be 1.082 billion, 1.551 billion, and 2.069 billion RMB respectively [5][6]