Yanjing Brewery(000729) 华鑫证券·2025-04-23 07:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Yanjing Beer [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated robust performance with significant profit growth, achieving total revenue and net profit of 14.67 billion and 1.06 billion yuan respectively in 2024, representing year-on-year increases of 3% and 64% [2] - The beer business has seen a notable improvement in gross margin, particularly in mid-to-high-end products, with a gross margin increase of 4.16 percentage points to 48.09% [3] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the growth of its U8 product line and ongoing operational improvements, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.51, 0.62, and 0.75 yuan respectively [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue and net profit were 14.67 billion and 1.06 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth of 3% and 64% [2] - The Q4 performance showed a revenue of 1.82 billion yuan and a net profit of -0.23 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 10% [2] - Operating cash flow and sales collection improved significantly, with operating cash flow reaching 2.55 billion yuan, up 81% year-on-year [2] Cost Optimization - The beer segment generated 13.23 billion yuan in revenue, with a slight increase of 1.01% year-on-year, and mid-to-high-end products accounted for 67.01% of beer revenue [3] - The gross margin for mid-to-high-end products improved to 48.09%, while the gross margin for regular products increased to 31.49% [3] Channel and Regional Performance - Revenue from traditional, KA, and e-commerce channels was 13.93 billion, 0.49 billion, and 0.26 billion yuan respectively, with e-commerce channel gross margin increasing to 28.35% [8] - Regional revenue showed growth in North and East China, with North China revenue at 7.83 billion yuan, up 5.39% year-on-year [8] Profit Forecast - The company is projected to maintain high profit growth, with net profit expected to reach 2.12 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 21.5% [11]