GANYUAN FOODS CO.(002991) 国海证券·2025-04-23 07:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 was under pressure, with expectations for a recovery in earnings [1] - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term outlook remains positive due to strong growth in snack wholesale and overseas channels [8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.257 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.18%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 376 million yuan, up 14.32% [4][5] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 504 million yuan, a decline of 13.99% year-on-year, and a net profit of 53 million yuan, down 42.21% [4][5] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 35.46%, a decrease of 0.78 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to promotional activities [5][6] Product and Channel Performance - The comprehensive nuts and bean products segment showed strong performance in 2024, with revenue growth of 39.80% [5] - The company’s revenue from offline channels grew faster than online, with significant contributions from snack wholesale and overseas markets [5] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 2.609 billion, 3.041 billion, and 3.527 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 16%, 17%, and 16% [7][8] - Net profit projections for the same period are 391 million, 493 million, and 590 million yuan, with growth rates of 4%, 26%, and 20% [7][8] Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a projected P/E ratio of 17.13 for 2025, decreasing to 11.35 by 2027 [7][9] - The expected ROE for 2025 is 21%, with a gradual increase to 24% by 2027 [7][9]