Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on gold, forecasting prices to reach an average of 3,675/ozby4Q25andabove4,000/oz by 2Q26 [2][4][22]. Core Insights - The structural shift in gold demand and geopolitical pricing drivers indicate that 4,000/ozisachievable,supportedbycontinuedstronginvestorandcentralbankdemand[2][4].−Centralbanksareexpectedtopurchasearound900tonnesofgoldin2025,reflectingongoingdiversificationfromUSDreservesamidgeopoliticaluncertainties[28][60].−Goldisviewedasanoptimalhedgeagainststagflation,recession,andUSpolicyrisks,withincreasedinvestorinterestexpectedfromETFsandretaildemand,particularlyinChina[2][56][60].SummarybySectionsDemandandPriceForecast−Goldpricesareprojectedtoaverage3,675/oz by 4Q25, driven by quarterly net demand averaging around 710 tonnes [4][22]. - A breakeven demand level of approximately 350 tonnes per quarter is necessary to maintain stable gold prices, with every additional 100 tonnes correlating to a 2% increase in price [12][22]. Central Bank Purchases - Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases, averaging 280 tonnes per quarter since 2022, compared to a pre-2022 average of 120 tonnes [12][28]. - The share of gold in official reserves has risen to nearly 20%, with ongoing diversification expected to continue [28][29]. Investor Demand - Total gold holdings by investors and central banks are estimated to approach a notional value of around 8.8trillion,highlightinggold′sappealasasafehaven[59][60].−Investorholdingsofgoldroseby34.2 trillion [56][60]. Silver Outlook - Silver is expected to face challenges in the near term due to industrial demand uncertainties, but a recovery is anticipated in the second half of 2025, with prices projected to rise towards $39/oz by year-end [2][9].
