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关税压力下,新兴支付清算体系迎来催化
海通国际证券·2025-04-23 08:35

Investment Rating - Investment advice: The industry is expected to see increased prosperity due to the escalation of the US-China trade war and the urgent need for cross-border payment transformation, with a focus on RMB internationalization [3][51]. Core Insights - The reshaping of global trade is driving upgrades in international clearing systems, with the need for a new system as US unilateralism may weaken dollar credibility [3][52]. - Emerging cross-border payment methods, particularly CIPS based on blockchain technology, show significant advantages over SWIFT, which is controlled by the US and EU [3][53]. - Policies are strongly supporting RMB internationalization and the promotion of digital RMB, with initiatives to enhance cross-border payment systems and reduce reliance on the US dollar [3][54]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Key companies to focus on include Yusys Technologies, Northking Information Technology, Newland Digital Technology, Xgd Inc, and Lakala Payment, with beneficiaries including Shenzhen Sunline Tech and Digital China Information Service Company [3][4][51]. Global Trade Restructuring - Europe is seeking cooperation with China and emerging economies in response to US tariff policies, which are seen as damaging to global trade order [6][10]. - The global economic landscape is shifting towards regional economic integration, with agreements like RCEP enhancing cooperation among Asian economies [16][19]. RMB Internationalization and Digital Currency - The digital RMB cross-border settlement system has been officially connected with ASEAN and Middle Eastern countries, significantly reducing reliance on SWIFT [22][23]. - The People's Bank of China is actively promoting the digital RMB and enhancing the RMB cross-border payment system to support international trade [44][45]. Advantages of New Payment Methods - CIPS is experiencing growth in transaction volume, with significant increases in the number of participants and transaction amounts [39][40]. - Blockchain technology is enabling faster and cheaper cross-border transactions, with the potential to replace traditional systems like SWIFT [30][34].