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登康口腔:产品升级与渠道扩张齐驱,业绩持续稳步提升-20250423

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][20] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 1.56 billion with a year-on-year growth of 13.4% in 2024, and a net profit of 161 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.07% [1][8] - The adult basic oral care segment remains the primary revenue source, contributing 1.407 billion, which accounts for 90.22% of total revenue [2][9] - The company is focusing on product upgrades and channel expansion, particularly through online sales, which have shown significant growth [1][4][10] Revenue and Profitability - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue growth of 39.12% and a net profit growth of 28.58% [1][8] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 49.37%, an increase of 5.26 percentage points year-on-year [13][18] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 7.5 yuan per 10 shares [1][8] Segment Performance - The adult basic oral care segment's revenue grew by 14.48% year-on-year, while the children's segment saw a decline of 1.90% [2][9] - The e-commerce channel experienced a robust growth of 51.99%, increasing its revenue share to 30.81% [2][9] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in Q1 2025, with a revenue increase of 19.36% and a net profit increase of 15.64% [3][10] - The forecast for net profit is 224 million in 2025, 286 million in 2026, and 344 million in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 33, 26, and 22 [4][20] Financial Metrics - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 is projected to be 181 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.09% [18][23] - The net profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 10.33%, with a slight increase from the previous year [13][18]