Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-23 09:13Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term trading range for the MA2509 contract is recommended to be between 2,280 - 2,340 yuan/ton. Recently, the output of domestic methanol has slightly decreased, and enterprise inventories are at a low level with some enterprises reluctant to sell at low prices. However, downstream resistance to high prices has weakened procurement enthusiasm. The overall port inventory has significantly decreased, and the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate has decreased month - on - month [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2,300 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 85 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 672,315 lots, up 6,364 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 35,414 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,123, down 110 [2] 2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,395 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2,255 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton. The East - Northwest spread is 140 yuan/ton, up 27.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is 95 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port is 266 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton; CFR Southeast Asia is 340 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton. FOB Rotterdam is 276 euros/ton, down 4 euros/ton. The China Main Port - Southeast Asia spread is - 74 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3. Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas is 3.04 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.01 US dollars/million British thermal units [2] 4. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 43.03 million tons, up 3.03 million tons; in South China ports, it is 15.53 million tons, down 1.45 million tons. The import profit of methanol is 78.62 yuan/ton, down 11.41 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 56.18 million tons, down 48.05 million tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 274,400 tons, up 19,800 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 87.37%, down 0.87 percentage points [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 52.52%, up 0.43 percentage points; dimethyl ether is 8.61%, down 0.73 percentage points; acetic acid is 81.35%, down 5.09 percentage points; MTBE is 67.19%, up 1.66 percentage points; olefins is 83.9%, down 3.15 percentage points. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 563 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan/ton [2] 6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 27.68%, up 1.01 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.15%, up 0.54 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 17.62%, down 0.75 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.61%, down 0.76 percentage points [2] 7. Industry News - As of April 23, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 30.98 million tons, down 0.26 million tons or 0.82% from the previous period; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises are 30.27 million tons, up 2.83 million tons or 10.30%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 46.32 million tons, down 12.24 million tons from the previous data. As of April 17, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 83.9%, down 3.15% month - on - month [2]