GANYUAN FOODS CO.(002991) 开源证券·2025-04-23 09:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 2.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 380 million yuan, up 14.3% year-on-year. However, the revenue for Q1 2025 was 500 million yuan, a decrease of 14.0% year-on-year, and the net profit dropped by 42.2% to 50 million yuan. The company has made significant short-term investments in expenses, leading to a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2026, with expected profits of 450 million yuan (-70 million), 540 million yuan (-100 million), and 680 million yuan, representing growth rates of 19.0%, 20.4%, and 25.9% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 14.8, 12.3, and 9.8 for 2025-2027 [1][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 650 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.0%, benefiting from the timing of the Spring Festival. The revenue breakdown by product for 2024 shows comprehensive nuts at 700 million yuan (up 39.8%), green peas at 520 million yuan (up 12.6%), sunflower seeds at 300 million yuan (up 10.5%), broad beans at 280 million yuan (up 19.7%), and other series at 440 million yuan (up 21.2%). The revenue by region indicates strong growth in East China (660 million yuan, up 45.3%) and overseas (8 million yuan, up 1761.5%) [2][3] Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 35.1%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales expense ratio increased to 12.8%, up 1.7 percentage points due to promotional expenses. The net profit for Q4 2024 was 100 million yuan, down 13.9% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base effect from tax refunds in Q4 2023. In Q1 2025, the gross margin decreased to 34.3%, down 1.1 percentage points, attributed to rising raw material costs [3][4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to face short-term revenue pressure due to the high base effect from the Spring Festival and traditional channel reforms. However, it is actively pursuing reforms in organizational structure, product innovation, and direct channel adaptation, with expected improvements starting in Q2 2025. The establishment of subsidiaries in Hong Kong and Indonesia aims to enhance overseas business, with actual overseas sales expected to be higher than reported [4][5]