XIAOMI(01810) 浙商证券·2025-04-23 09:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report anticipates that Xiaomi's automotive deliveries will exceed market expectations, predicting 848,000 units by 2026, with the YU7 model contributing 360,000 units [1] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 356.6 billion CNY and 469.5 billion CNY, respectively, which are 16% and 31% higher than Bloomberg consensus [1] - The automotive business is expected to enhance Xiaomi's profit margins and expand its ecosystem barriers, driving a surge in dealer store openings [1][6] Summary by Sections Automotive Business Impact - Xiaomi's automotive business is projected to achieve profitability in 2025, with adjusted profits exceeding 10 billion CNY in 2026, driven by the success of the SU7 and YU7 models [6][13] - The SU7 model is expected to maintain a steady monthly sales volume of around 25,000 units in 2025, capturing approximately 23.13% of the 200,000-300,000 CNY price segment [28] - The YU7 is anticipated to capture a 16.2% market share in the 200,000-250,000 CNY SUV segment, with projected annual sales of 360,000 units [28] Ecosystem Expansion - Xiaomi's automotive sales are expected to create a "flywheel effect," enhancing the profitability of Xiaomi's retail stores and driving a surge in new store openings [29][36] - The integration of the Xiaomi HyperOS across over 200 product categories is set to facilitate data interconnectivity and enhance user experience across the "people, car, home" ecosystem [32][34] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 481.84 billion CNY, 636.48 billion CNY, and 716.47 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.7%, 32.1%, and 12.6% respectively [7][39] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 416.42 billion CNY, 613.35 billion CNY, and 655.96 billion CNY, with growth rates of 52.9%, 47.3%, and 6.9% [7][39] - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, estimating a target price of 56.12 HKD per share based on a 20x PE for core business and a 3x PS for the automotive segment [42][43]