Guangzhou Restaurant(603043) 东方证券·2025-04-23 10:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 18.36 CNY, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18 times for 2025 [6][10]. Core Views - The company is experiencing strong performance in restaurant expansion and is actively distributing dividends and implementing incentives to boost confidence among stakeholders [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.02, 1.16, and 1.30 CNY respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to weak downstream demand and rising raw material costs [2][10]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its restaurant business, which has shown significant growth, while its food manufacturing segment is under pressure due to increased competition [9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is reported at 4,901 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 19.2%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5,124 million CNY (+4.6%), 5,718 million CNY (+11.6%), 6,354 million CNY (+11.1%), and 7,055 million CNY (+11.0%) respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is 550 million CNY, with a projected decline of 10.3% in 2024, followed by a recovery to 577 million CNY in 2025 (+16.9%) [4][9]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 31.7%, down 3.9 percentage points from the previous year, primarily due to increased promotional activities in the food manufacturing sector [9]. Business Segment Insights - The restaurant service revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1,460 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, contributing to 28.4% of total revenue [9]. - The food manufacturing segment's revenue is expected to grow only 1.0% year-on-year, with specific product lines like mooncakes and frozen foods experiencing declines of 2.0% and 3.0% respectively [9]. - The company's overseas business is expanding rapidly, with a 41.6% increase in revenue from international markets, including the United States and Canada [9].