GANYUAN FOODS CO.(002991) 开源证券·2025-04-23 10:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 2.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 380 million yuan, up 14.3% year-on-year. However, the Q1 2025 revenue was 500 million yuan, a decline of 14.0%, and the net profit dropped by 42.2% to 50 million yuan. The company has increased short-term expenses, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and the introduction of a new forecast for 2027 [1][4] - The company is expected to benefit from traditional channel reforms and sustained growth in overseas revenue, maintaining a positive outlook [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 35.1%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. The sales expense ratio increased to 12.8%, up 1.7 percentage points, primarily due to promotional expenses. The net profit for Q4 2024 was 100 million yuan, down 13.9% year-on-year due to a high base effect from tax refunds in Q4 2023 [3] - For Q1 2025, the gross margin was 34.3%, down 1.1 percentage points, attributed to rising raw material costs. The sales expense ratio rose to 17.3%, an increase of 4.2 percentage points, influenced by new endorsement fees and expansion of overseas operations [3] Revenue Growth and Product Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 650 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.0%, benefiting from the timing of the Spring Festival. The revenue breakdown by product for 2024 shows significant growth in mixed nuts and other categories, with mixed nuts achieving a revenue of 700 million yuan, up 39.8% [2] - The company’s revenue from overseas markets showed remarkable growth, with a notable increase in sales volume, particularly in regions like Northeast and overseas markets [2][4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to gradually see the effects of its traditional channel reforms starting from Q2 2025. It has established subsidiaries in Hong Kong and Indonesia to enhance its overseas business presence, with a registered capital of approximately 1.04 million USD for the Hong Kong subsidiary and 176 billion Indonesian Rupiah for the Indonesian subsidiary [4] - The company aims to strengthen its distribution system and overseas business, which is anticipated to support its continuous growth [4]