2025Q1末银行股机构筹码追踪：机构加仓中小行

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - In Q1 2025, market risk appetite rebounded, leading to a slight decrease in overall bank holdings by institutions. There is an increased preference for cyclical and high-dividend stocks among institutional funds [1][2] - The overall public fund holdings in bank stocks decreased slightly, with a 1.5% decline compared to Q4 2024. Active public funds saw a significant decrease of 19.6% in holdings, while index funds and northbound capital increased by 7.4% and 0.8%, respectively [1][4] - Institutions are increasingly favoring mid-sized banks with strong fundamentals and high dividends, with notable increases in holdings for banks such as Shanghai, CITIC, Qingdao, Chongqing, and Ruifeng [2] - Northbound capital holdings remained stable, with a slight increase of 0.8% in Q1 2025. However, there was significant outflow from state-owned banks [2][3] Summary by Sections Institutional Holdings - By the end of Q1 2025, the proportion of institutional holdings in state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks changed by -0.8pc, +0.2pc, +0.3pc, and remained flat, respectively [1] - Active public funds reduced their holdings significantly, while passive public funds increased their positions in high-dividend banks [3][4] Individual Bank Performance - The banks with the largest increases in institutional holdings include Shanghai Bank (+3.9pc), CITIC Bank (+3.0pc), Qingdao Bank (+2.2pc), Chongqing Bank (+2.1pc), and Ruifeng Bank (+1.9pc) [2] - The index funds continued to increase their holdings in bank stocks, with a 7.4% rise in holdings by the end of Q1 2025, particularly in Shanghai Bank [3] Investment Strategy - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, emphasizing the combination of low risk appetite and low risk-free interest rates as favorable conditions for banks. The focus is on low volatility, high dividend yield, and banks located in economically developed regions [5] - Key recommendations include Pudong Development Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Chengdu Bank, along with high-dividend stocks like CITIC Bank, Chongqing Bank, and China Construction Bank [5]