SIEYUAN(002028) 摩根·2025-04-23 10:46Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Sieyuan Electric with a price target of Rmb 85.00 by December 2025 [19][27]. Core Insights - Sieyuan Electric's FY24 results were in line with expectations, with new orders guidance for FY25 projected to grow by 25%, which is above consensus estimates of approximately 20% [2][3]. - The company experienced a significant increase in overseas revenue, which grew by approximately 45% year-on-year, contributing positively to overall growth [2][4]. - Despite strong financial performance, there are concerns regarding the management's decision to limit disclosures about its by-product segments for FY24, which raises questions about transparency [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - New orders for FY24 grew by approximately 30% year-on-year to around Rmb 21.5 billion, surpassing the target of 25% growth [3]. - Overall revenue growth reached 30% year-on-year in Q4 2024, with overseas revenue increasing by about 50% year-on-year in the second half of 2024 [4]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved by 2 percentage points to 31% in 2024, driven by better domestic margins and higher contributions from overseas sales [5]. Expenses and Provisions - Selling expenses rose by 32% year-on-year in 2024, attributed to increased marketing efforts and share options impact [6]. - The company made Rmb 107 million in goodwill provisions in 2024, primarily related to its supercapacitor business [6][10]. Future Guidance - Sieyuan Electric is guiding for a revenue of Rmb 18.5 billion in FY25, reflecting a 20% year-on-year growth expectation [17]. - The company anticipates new orders to reach Rmb 26.8 billion in FY25, maintaining a growth rate of 25% [17]. Market Position and Outlook - Sieyuan Electric is positioned to benefit from China's elevated transmission and distribution capital expenditure, as well as from global trends in transmission capex and transformer shortages [19]. - The report suggests that the market reaction to the company's guidance will likely be positive, given the strong outlook for new orders [13].