摩根大通：苹果供应链-iPhone 电子制造服务产量 -引入 2025 年全年预估及对 2026 年的初步展望

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for Largan Precision Co Ltd, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance relative to its peers [31]. Core Insights - The report updates the iPhone EMS build estimates for 2024 and 1H25, reflecting India's production capacity, which is expected to contribute approximately 3.5 million units per month, totaling around 40 million units annually [3][10]. - The total iPhone build estimate for 2025 is projected at 233 million units, representing a slight year-over-year decline [1][3]. - Demand uncertainties are anticipated due to the impact of US tariffs and China's export restrictions on rare-earth elements, which may affect the supply chain and production costs [1][4]. Summary by Sections iPhone Build Estimates - The updated iPhone EMS build for 2024 is set at 236 million units, with 1H25 estimates at 103 million units, showing an 8% year-over-year growth due to increased demand for the iPhone 16 series [3]. - The forecast for the iPhone 17 series in 2H25 is 85 million units, which is 9% lower than the iPhone 16 series build in 2H24 [3][4]. Production Capacity - India's current production capacity is estimated at 3.5 million units per month, with 22 product lines operational at Foxconn and Tata/Pega sites [10]. - The report highlights that the iPhone's major production site remains in China, which accounts for 80-90% of total production [1]. Product Specifications - Key specifications for the iPhone 17 series include a new slim model, upgraded camera features, and the introduction of in-house components such as the modem and WiFi 7 [3][21]. - The report anticipates the introduction of a foldable iPhone in 2H26, which is expected to feature dual cameras and omit certain technologies like LiDAR [3]. Supplier Insights - Among the supply chain companies, Largan is favored due to its defensive position and solid average selling price (ASP) and market share [4]. - The report provides detailed order allocations for various components and suppliers involved in the iPhone 16 series, indicating significant reliance on companies like TSMC for processors and Sony for camera sensors [25][27].