摩根士丹利：中国在线娱乐与在线旅游-在关税冲击下突出防御性标的

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" (OW) rating to key companies including NTES, TME, and Tongcheng, indicating a preference for these defensive names amid macroeconomic uncertainties [21]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic team has revised the GDP growth forecast for China down by 30 basis points to 4.2% for 2025, primarily due to the impact of US tariffs, which are expected to drag exports by 90 basis points while potential domestic stimulus could provide a 60 basis point lift [2]. - Despite a strong 1Q25 GDP growth of 5.4%, a slowdown to below 4.5% is anticipated in 2Q and 3Q as tariff impacts materialize [2]. - The report highlights resilient travel demand and suggests that domestic consumption stimulus will benefit Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) like TCOM and Tongcheng, with Tongcheng being the preferred investment choice due to its focus on domestic demand and lower-tier cities [6][21]. Summary by Sections Gaming - The gaming industry is viewed as a safe haven with low correlation to macroeconomic factors and no tariff impact. Key players like NTES are expected to perform well, with strong titles offsetting any underperformance from others [4]. Music - TME is projected to achieve a revenue growth target of 9-10% for the full year, with limited downside risk from tariffs due to its relatively inelastic average revenue per user (ARPU) of approximately RMB 12 per month [5]. Travel - The report anticipates government stimulus plans to support the travel sector, particularly through the extension of trade-in programs to services like travel. OTAs are well-positioned to benefit, with Tongcheng favored for its margin expansion potential and strategic acquisitions [6][21]. Consumer Insights - The AlphaWise survey indicates that while overall consumption may face pressure, sectors like online gaming, music, and livestreaming are likely to remain unaffected. Travel intentions are strong, although the shopping budget per traveler is declining [3]. Financial Projections - For Tongcheng, 1Q25 revenue is expected to show significant year-over-year growth across various service segments, with accommodation reservation services projected to grow by 23% and transportation ticketing services by 14% [24].