吉宏股份（002803）：24年业绩有所承压，25年Q1业绩亮眼

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [4][17]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 faced challenges, with a revenue of 5.529 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.41%, and a net profit of 182 million yuan, down 47.28% [2][4]. - In contrast, the first quarter of 2025 showed promising results, with a revenue of 1.477 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.55%, and a net profit of 59 million yuan, up 38.21%, primarily driven by the growth in cross-border e-commerce [2][3]. - The company is focusing on a long-term development strategy that includes AI-driven optimization of cross-border e-commerce, strengthening its own brand, and expanding its packaging business internationally [3][8]. Financial Summary - The company's projected financials indicate a recovery trend, with expected revenues of 6.343 billion yuan in 2025, 7.218 billion yuan in 2026, and 8.202 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 14.7%, 13.8%, and 13.6% respectively [1][9]. - The net profit is projected to increase to 241 million yuan in 2025, 301 million yuan in 2026, and 368 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 32.6%, 24.7%, and 22.3% [1][9]. - The report highlights the company's return on equity (ROE) improving from 8.4% in 2024 to 12.1% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [1][9].