FULIN. PM(300432) 国金证券·2025-04-23 11:51Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 26 CNY based on a 20X PE for 2026 [4] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in high-density lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries and is expected to see continuous growth in both volume and profit due to its dual business model of iron-lithium and automotive components [2] - The automotive components business is rapidly expanding, with significant revenue growth projected in the coming years, supported by a broad customer base [3] - The company is also venturing into robotics, specifically joint modules, which positions it advantageously in a growing market [3] Summary by Sections High-Density Lithium Iron Phosphate - The company is a leading player in the high-density LFP sector, benefiting from industry trends towards higher energy density and fast charging capabilities [2] - Supply-demand dynamics are expected to tighten from 2025 to 2026, leading to a premium pricing of over 2000 CNY/ton for the fourth generation of high-density LFP compared to the third generation [2] - The company has a unique position in the market due to its exclusive use of oxalic acid iron technology, which enhances product performance [2] - Market share is projected to increase from 3% in 2024 to 5% in 2026, with expected shipments of 117,000 tons, 270,000 tons, and 420,000 tons for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, alongside improving gross margins [2] Automotive Components - The company serves over 60 major automotive clients, including BYD and Huawei, with significant revenue growth anticipated in the automotive components segment [3] - Revenue projections for the automotive components segment are 3.6 billion CNY, 4.6 billion CNY, and 5.7 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding gross margins of 25%, 23%, and 21% [3] - The company plans to raise up to 1.25 billion CNY through convertible bonds to fund expansion in automotive and robotics businesses [3] Robotics - The company is developing robotic joint assemblies, with initial production already underway and plans for mass supply by 2025 [3] - Partnerships with key players in the automotive sector position the company as a core supplier for domestic robotic manufacturers [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 400 million CNY, 960 million CNY, and 1.6 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses [4] - The projected revenue for the company is set to recover to 8.04 billion CNY in 2024, with further growth to 14.54 billion CNY and 20.80 billion CNY in 2025 and 2026 respectively [7]