华鲁恒升：以量补价穿越周期，龙头彰显业绩韧性-20250423

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company demonstrates resilience in performance by leveraging increased production to offset price declines in a challenging market environment [28][29]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 34.226 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.903 billion yuan, up 9.1% year-on-year [29][32]. - The report highlights the successful ramp-up of production capacity at the Jingzhou base, which significantly boosted sales across various product lines [14][29]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company’s stock has shown a relative performance against the CSI 300 index, with a notable decline of 34% over the observed period [2]. Financial Data - The company reported total revenue of 34.226 billion yuan for 2024, with a net profit of 3.903 billion yuan [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 1.97, 2.15, and 2.42 yuan, respectively, indicating a growth trajectory [5][6]. Production and Sales - The company’s production and sales volumes for key products in 2024 saw significant increases, with fertilizers, organic amines, acetic acid, and related products experiencing year-on-year sales growth of 44.5%, 12.6%, 116.7%, and 17.1%, respectively [14][15]. - The report notes that the company’s production capacity is expected to continue expanding, with several projects currently under construction [14][19]. Profitability - The company’s gross margin and net margin for 2024 were reported at 18.7% and 12.2%, respectively, reflecting a slight decline compared to previous years [5][34]. - The report indicates that the company is actively managing costs, achieving a period expense ratio of 3.8% in 2024 [5][34]. Long-term Development - The company is positioned as a leader in the coal chemical industry, with a stable shareholding structure and ongoing projects that are expected to drive future growth [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the company’s strategic focus on optimizing existing operations while expanding its production capabilities [5][9].