高盛：全球经济评论-从全球经济数据追踪关税的贸易影响

Investment Rating - The report indicates that US tariffs are expected to significantly affect global trade flows and economic activity, suggesting a cautious investment outlook in the affected sectors [2][10][19]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring business surveys as timely indicators of trade impacts from tariffs, with a focus on new export orders [3][9][19]. - It highlights that a 1-point pullback in new export orders has historically predicted a 0.75 percentage point slowdown in year-over-year export growth [9][13]. - The report notes that actual exports from several economies have recently increased due to frontloading but are expected to decline with the implementation of tariffs [10][20]. - Trade releases from over 50% of US trade partners will be closely monitored as they are predictive of US trade flows, with specific dates for releases provided [11][15]. Summary by Sections Trade Impact Analysis - The report discusses the anticipated effects of US tariffs on global trade, particularly focusing on the manufacturing sector and export orders [2][10]. - It mentions that early data from countries like South Korea show a significant pullback in exports due to tariff hikes [17][20]. Data Monitoring - A detailed calendar of upcoming business surveys and trade data releases is provided, indicating the importance of these metrics in assessing the impact of tariffs [6][11]. - The report suggests that monitoring port traffic data can provide alternative signals of shifting trade patterns, although it may be noisier [19][20]. Statistical Insights - The report includes statistical analysis indicating that a decline in new export orders correlates with a slowdown in export growth, emphasizing the predictive nature of these surveys [9][13]. - It also notes that the full impact of tariffs on trade may be delayed due to frontloading incentives and exemptions for items in transit at the time of tariff implementation [10][19].