摩根士丹利：苹果供应链 -面临的挑战不止关税

Investment Rating - The report downgrades Goertek and Lingyi to Underweight (UW) and Genius to Equal-weight (EW) due to vulnerabilities in the Apple supply chain related to tariff changes and production location diversification pressures [1][5]. Core Insights - The Apple supply chain is viewed as the most vulnerable to tariff changes, leading to a reduction in earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 by an average of 12% and 15% respectively, resulting in expected earnings growth of 8% and 14% year-over-year [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the need for "China+1" or "+2" production bases to mitigate tariff impacts, noting that capacity diversification may take 1-2 years to implement and could increase overall operational costs [4][12]. - The report suggests it is too early for investors to consider bottom-fishing in the downgraded companies due to ongoing tariff uncertainties and unattractive valuations [5][31]. Summary by Sections Earnings Estimates - iPhone build estimates are revised to flat year-over-year in 2025 (214 million units) and a 4% increase in 2026 (223 million units), reflecting price inflation from tariff hikes [8][10]. - The production cost in the US is projected to be at least 50% higher than in China, with costs in Vietnam and India also rising by 15% and 25% respectively over the past five years [8][10]. Price Target Changes - Price targets have been cut for several companies, including Genius to NT$400, Crystal to RMB22, Largan to NT$2,800, BYDE to HK$45, and AAC to HK$50, reflecting downward revisions in earnings estimates [32][31]. - The report indicates that the group trades at 17.1x 2025e PE and 14.8x 2026e, which is higher than the 8-year trading average of 15x for the tech hardware sector [3][11]. Production and Demand Analysis - The report highlights a significant gap between US demand and non-China production, particularly for iPhones, iPads, and AirPods, with production still highly concentrated in China [13][16]. - The ongoing trade conflict is expected to continue raising production costs, necessitating a reevaluation of production strategies within the tech hardware supply chain [12][13].